OTTAWA — By points percentage, the Ottawa Senators are tied for first in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets are first in the Central, a headline few would have predicted after summers defined by the departures of their star players.
Brady Tkachuk finally asked out and got his wish, moving south but staying in the Atlantic Division with the Florida Panthers after a meek post-season exit, while Connor Hellebuyck remains at home and away from the Jets. Senators fans are currently calling Tkachuk James Bond, because he has contributed 0 goals, 0 assists and 7 penalty minutes to the Panthers' start.
For Ottawa, the move has felt like addition by subtraction even though Tkachuk was a difference-maker. Off-ice issues around his podcast and family were reported to have driven a wedge between himself and the team, to the point where some in the Ottawa room were happy to see him go. He missed 10 and 22 games in the last two seasons respectively and his time on ice was way down last season. Yet the structure was greatly improved last season, with Ottawa a top-10 offensive side by several metrics including 275 goals for, eighth in the league. Their defensive numbers would have been better had their goaltending not been among the worst in the league, using five netminders en route to a team save percentage of .882, not including empty netters. The question now is whether William Eklund, his nominal replacement who has historically scored at a similar rate, can replace that outgoing offence, and whether a full season of a healthy Linus Ullmark can lift the goaltending, with backup Samuel Ersson arguably the worst goalie in the league over the last two seasons at 28.2 goals saved below expected.
The Jets' Hellebuyck problem is harder to predict. They could not win with him being slightly above average last season and, with him on the beach neither contributing nor harming them, the situation is delicate. Stuart Skinner has been quite good to start the year, but his time with the Edmonton Oilers showed he is a perfectly good NHL goalie taken as a whole yet maddeningly inconsistent game-to-game, and when he is bad he is really bad. Playing behind a Jets side not historically known for insulating its netminders from risk, that could be a recipe for disaster. The alternative is new backup Clay Stevenson, who was the Washington Capitals' No. 3 goalie until a couple of weeks ago. At age 27 with just five career NHL games, he is tough to project, but the 6-foot-4 netminder carries a career .912 save percentage. General manager Kevin Cheveldayoff may soon trade Hellebuyck and will no doubt bring in at least a couple of NHL players to add to the middle or upper-middle of the roster, and if Stevenson plays well enough it may not even need to be a goalie.
Right now Ottawa feel like a safe bet to be around the play-offs, with a higher ceiling than that in a potentially softening Atlantic. Winnipeg's task looks steeper over 84 games in a highly competitive Central, where Colorado, Utah and Minnesota look as good as expected and Dallas are yet to hit their stride. Banking points now is vital, with wins set to be at a premium all year.