BEIJING — Alexander Zverev has suffered a dent in his bid to overtake Jannik Sinner as world number one after defeat to Novak Djokovic in the China Open quarter-finals. The German had been potentially two tournaments away from reaching the summit for the first time, with Sinner still absent due to a right knee injury which has prevented him from playing a match since Wimbledon.
In the current live rankings Sinner leads Zverev by 1,280 points, but that advantage is smaller than it appears. Sinner still has over 3,000 points to defend before the end of the year and it remains in Zverev's hands to finish the year as world number one, as he currently leads the race to the ATP Finals. At the Shanghai Masters, where Sinner has already withdrawn, both players have only 50 points to defend after neither enjoyed deep runs last year. Zverev will not become world number one even if he wins the Shanghai Masters title for the first time, but victory would move him to within 300 points of the absent Sinner.
The Vienna Open then looms as decisive. Both players are entered, with Sinner having beaten Zverev in last year's final, meaning Sinner has 500 points to defend compared to Zverev's 330. If Zverev wins both the Shanghai Masters and the Vienna Open he would move to 10,840 points, more than Sinner would hold even if he reaches the final in the Austrian capital. Therefore Zverev knows that regardless of whether Sinner is able to return in Vienna, winning his next two tournaments will guarantee he becomes world number one.
Zverev's next assignment is the Shanghai Masters, where he achieved his best result in 2019 after reaching the final. The two-time Grand Slam champion will hope to go one step further this year as the top seed, giving him an automatic bye to the second round where he will face either Chinese wildcard Yibing Wu, who he beat in their only previous meeting, or a qualifier. Potential threats in his half of the draw include Ben Shelton, Flavio Cobolli, Brandon Nakashima and Alexander Blockx, with Carlos Alcaraz the forecast opponent in the final. The main draw gets underway on Wednesday, 7 October, with Zverev not playing until at least Friday due to the bye, though he has not reached the quarter-finals in any of his last three appearances at the tournament.